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Zhu Min: 2017 the global economy will run low

Release Date:2017-03-15

Well-known economist Zhu Min, former vice president of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), gave a keynote speech at the forum entitled "Global Economy 2017: Certainty and Uncertainty". Zhu Min believes that next year the global economy contains both certainty and uncertainty
On the certainty, Zhu Min that next year the global economic low operation can be determined. The global economy is now at a low level of low growth, low investment, low trade, low capital flows, low inflation, low oil prices and low interest rates, and future potential economic growth is still slowing. We need to accept this fact, change the positioning and strategy, can still be the winner.
On the uncertainty, Zhu Min believes that the new US President Trump will implement the economic policy and its impact is uncertain.
Zhu Min pointed out that Trump's economic policy during the campaign, summed up three points: the first policy is tax cuts; the second policy is trade protectionism; the third policy is to increase investment in infrastructure. Tax reform, trade protection, increase investment in infrastructure these three things Trump will do, which is OK. Not sure that we do not know how he implemented these three programs, do not know the intensity and intensity of his implementation of the program, resulting in a huge uncertainty.
Zhu Min believes that the Fed must raise interest rates by the end of this year, next year will continue to increase, after the rate hike will be stronger. And the strength of the dollar on the world financial market is a very important risk indicator, which is a great uncertainty. Trump to cut taxes, to increase the financial expenditure, investment infrastructure, the United States will once again into the fiscal deficit and current account of the double deficit peak, which is determined. But with the two peaks, the dollar exchange rate will change? Whether the dollar will weaken, which is another major uncertainty next year
Put all the factors together, Zhu Min that the US economic growth, will gradually move towards a stable 2% range, but because of Trump's policy, next year the US economic growth will fluctuate, while the US economic fluctuations Will have a huge impact on the global economy.
Finally, Zhu Min pointed out that the global economy in 2017 low overall operation is determined. Trump implementation of economic policy, tax cuts, trade protectionism, to strengthen infrastructure investment is also determined. But it is uncertain whether Trump's economic policy is implemented. While the US economic and financial trends, as the world's largest uncertainty in 2017 factors. Therefore, the global financial market volatility, global economic growth fluctuations, in 2017 will increase. Fluctuation is determined, how to fluctuate, how much volatility, which is uncertain.